A recent analysis indicates that the Saskatchewan government’s choice to renovate its coal-fired power plants could amount to as high as $46.4 billion over the next two decades. This figure surpasses the previously disclosed estimate from leaked internal SaskPower documents, which had projected costs of $26 billion over 25 years.
Brett Dolter, an associate professor at the University of Regina specializing in economics, conducted the study to evaluate the expenses associated with Saskatchewan’s strategy of utilizing coal-fired plants as a transition to nuclear power and Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). Dolter’s research reveals that this plan will be more costly and environmentally detrimental compared to retiring the coal plants and constructing a mix of natural gas facilities and renewable energy setups, which had been the province’s initial plan before its policy reversal in early 2025.
According to Dolter, incorporating carbon pricing into the calculations further emphasizes the cost disparities. Without carbon pricing on heavy emitters, sticking with coal would entail expenses of $30.2 billion over the next two decades. However, the cumulative cost rises to $46.4 billion when factoring in carbon pricing, as determined using values akin to Ottawa’s recent memorandum of understanding with Alberta.
Dolter emphasized that the financial implications of Saskatchewan’s current trajectory are evident, refraining from speculating on the rationale behind the government’s decision despite the known costs.
When questioned about Dolter’s analysis, the provincial government provided a statement emphasizing the importance of reliable and affordable electricity for Saskatchewan’s growth. The government reaffirmed its commitment to utilizing the province’s resources while transitioning towards nuclear energy, as per Crown Investments Corporation Minister Jeremy Harrison’s declaration of an “all-of-the-above” strategy for meeting energy requirements.
The article also highlights the potential impact on the City of Estevan, where Mayor Tony Sernick expressed concerns over projected population loss prior to the coal and nuclear announcements. Sernick noted a shift in outlook following the government’s decision, with the city now anticipating new developments alongside the coal refurbishment and potential transition to nuclear power.
Saskatchewan’s divergence from federal regulations aimed at phasing out coal-fired power presents financial and legal risks, with Dolter warning of potential legal challenges and financial losses if the province proceeds with its current course of action against federal mandates.
Overall, the analysis underscores the substantial costs and implications associated with Saskatchewan’s approach to coal-fired power plant refurbishments and the transition towards nuclear energy.