A recent peer-reviewed study highlights heavy rainfall as a significant threat to cocoa production, contrary to the common focus on heat and drought. Cocoa prices have surged in recent years, reaching around $6,000 US per tonne from the previous $2,000 to $3,000 US range since 2014, with a peak over $12,000 US in 2024 due to factors like heavy flooding in West Africa, a major cocoa-growing region.
According to Leslie Agyare, founder of Three Mountains Cocoa in Ghana, excessive rainfall has posed challenges for cocoa farmers this year, hindering harvest activities. While climate change exacerbates extreme rainfall, the study suggests possible interventions to safeguard cocoa yields. The research, centered on Ghana, reveals that intense rainfall during flowering stages significantly impacts cocoa yields.
Extreme rainfall not only harms sensitive cocoa flowers but also promotes fungal infections like black pod disease, affecting yields in countries like Ecuador and Indonesia. The study indicates a climate trend of intensified rain events during the wet season due to warmer air retaining more moisture. Despite the El Niño phenomenon in West Africa reducing extreme rain risk but increasing drought probability, farmers face difficulties during dry periods, impacting cocoa production.
Apart from climate risks, the study notes other threats to cocoa production, including aging trees and illegal gold mining. Experts emphasize the need for infrastructure improvements like better drainage systems to combat extreme weather effects. Agyare advocates for centralized post-harvest processing and enhanced water management to address cocoa farming challenges.
The study underscores the declining appeal of cocoa farming in West Africa due to climate shocks, potentially leading to a shift away from traditional cocoa cultivation. Some industry players have already explored cocoa-free alternatives, with companies like Nestlé partnering with cocoa-free chocolate startups to develop innovative products like ChoViva. Despite fluctuating cocoa prices, experts stress the urgency of supporting smallholder farmers in West Africa who have historically borne the brunt of underpriced chocolate production.