Canadian exports to China surged by 30% in the first half of 2026, contributing to a 3.6% year-over-year increase in overall trade, according to data from Statistics Canada analyzed by experts. The latest figures, part of a recent report released by the Canada China Business Council and the University of Alberta’s China Institute, signal a resurgence in trade between the two nations as Canada seeks to broaden its economic horizons amidst strained relations with the United States.
The total trade in goods between Canada and China reached $66.6 billion in the first half of 2026, with exports rising by 30% to $21.74 billion. Energy and minerals were the primary drivers, accounting for 58.4% of all Canadian exports to China during this period, with energy products like crude oil and liquefied propane seeing an 81.8% surge. Additionally, exports of metal ores and non-metallic minerals, including copper ore, climbed by 29%.
“This marks a record high for our exports to China in the first half of the year,” noted Bijan Ahmadi, the Executive Director of the Canada China Business Council. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, the significant uptick in trade is likely a result of multiple factors coming together.
The warming diplomatic and economic relations between Canada and China following years of strain, particularly stemming from the arrest of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou in 2018, have played a role in facilitating this trade boost. As Canada navigates escalating trade conflicts with the U.S., Prime Minister Mark Carney has emphasized the country’s commitment to forging new trade agreements and reducing dependence on its southern neighbor.
Moreover, factors such as the increased capacity of the Trans Mountain Pipeline in June, providing greater access to Western Canadian crude oil for Asian markets, and disruptions in oil shipments due to global events like the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, have further bolstered Canada’s export prospects. Mark Maki, CEO of Trans Mountain, anticipates that Asia could account for 70% of Canada’s oil exports by 2028.
The recent trade truce between Canada and China has also been pivotal in driving trade growth, with agreements allowing Chinese electric vehicles into the Canadian market in exchange for tariff concessions on Canadian agricultural products. This deal has already positively impacted the agricultural sector, with prices rebounding for products like canola seed.
While imports from China declined by 5.8% year over year, resulting in a 25% reduction in Canada’s trade deficit with China, there has been a noticeable shift in manufacturing activities to countries like Vietnam. Despite the overall trade gains, certain sectors like agriculture have shown only modest improvement, with exports of products like canola seed and beef seeing growth while others, like lobster, experienced declines.
Looking ahead, experts emphasize the need for Canada to diversify its trading partners and enhance engagement with the Asia-Pacific region, particularly given the vast market opportunities it presents. The outlook for the remainder of the year remains optimistic, with Canada on track to surpass its target of increasing exports to China by 50% by 2030, indicating promising prospects for future trade relations.