Humans have always aspired to venture into and investigate the cosmos. Much of science fiction often depicts settlements on the barren surfaces of the moon and Mars.
According to billionaires like Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos, lunar cities may soon become a reality.
In February, SpaceX’s CEO Musk announced on social media that the company is redirecting its efforts from establishing a presence on Mars—a goal he has passionately pursued for over ten years.
“For those who may not know, SpaceX has already redirected its focus toward constructing a self-sustaining city on the moon, which we believe can be accomplished in under 10 years, while Mars would require over 20 years,” he stated.
This declaration—along with comments from Blue Origin’s CEO Bezos, who has asserted that “millions of individuals” will reside in space by 2045—captivated Martin Elvis, a senior astrophysicist at Harvard’s Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory.
Together with astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell, an honorary professor at the Durham University Space Research Centre in England, they decided to analyze the data.
However, their results were not promising for the prospect of a lunar civilization, so it may be too early to jump to conclusions.
In their research published in the journal Frontiers in Space Technologies, the duo investigated the energy and water requirements necessary to support humans on the moon.
Regarding power, they discovered that solar and nuclear energy would suffice to support a population of one million people on the moon’s surface.
However, the situation concerning water is more complex.
It may come as a surprise, but there is indeed water on the moon. Most of it is thought to be located in permanently shadowed regions (PSR), which are areas near the poles that are never exposed to sunlight.
Nevertheless, their study indicated that the moon lacks sufficient water to sustain a significant human settlement.
NASA has outlined its plans to build a base on the moon that will first be occupied by rovers and drones, but the longer-term goal is human habitation.
“Our research indicates that, yes, if the intention is to maintain an Antarctic-style base on the moon for the next few hundred years, that’s feasible. Establishing a small town is also achievable. However, if the goal is to cover the moon with urban areas, akin to the finest science fiction, a method to transport water there must be developed, as it is currently not available,” McDowell remarked.
Assuming there is approximately one billion tonnes of water on the moon, which aligns with existing projections, they concluded that a population of one million could only survive on the moon for about 100 years. This is contingent upon recycling 98 percent of the water, similar to practices on the International Space Station.
‘A small lake’
Elvis pointed out that while one billion tonnes of water may seem substantial, it needs to be contextualized.
“If you envision an enormous aquarium the size of Central Park in Manhattan, you could fill it to the point where the Statue of Liberty is just submerged, and that represents the total amount of water available. Thus, while it is considerable in one sense, it’s essentially a small lake. And a small lake cannot adequately supply a large urban center for an extended period,” he explained.
This does not imply that human habitation on the moon is impossible. Their analysis indicated that a town with 10,000 residents could be sustained for centuries.
However, this is based on the assumption that the one billion tonne estimate is correct.
“It is very likely that the billion-tonne figure is a significant overestimate. It could be 20 to 30 times too high,” Elvis stated.
Jacob Bleacher, NASA’s chief exploration scientist, says the first two Artemis missions have set the stage for the next moon landing, a moon base and eventually, human exploration of Mars, missions so challenging that only international co-operation makes them possible.
He further explained that it is improbable we would be able to recover all the water that exists. Instead, we might only extract one-third to half of what is present.
“My best estimate is that the actual amount of water we can be reasonably sure about is one percent of what was previously suggested. Therefore, instead of living for 100 years, it’s more likely to be just one year,” he added.
Additionally, the precise form of the water remains unknown, and determining this is essential.
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“While it’s possible to detect water from satellites, there are still uncertainties in those measurements,” stated Gordon Osinski, a professor of planetary geology at Western University in London, Ontario.
“I believe it exists, but we need to validate that on-site and confirm its presence. Additionally, larger questions remain about its form… Is it similar to the permafrost found in the Arctic, which consists of soil with tiny ice crystals that are challenging to extract?”
While this might seem discouraging for humanity’s aspirations to explore space, McDowell emphasized the importance of understanding the reality.
“The truth is never negative,” he said. “What is truly negative is attempting to undertake a project that is destined to fail.”