Russia perceives itself to be engaged in a conflict with NATO allies, although it has not yet escalated to direct military confrontation. This mindset allows the Kremlin to allocate resources to carry out probing attacks on NATO defenses, identifying vulnerabilities and boundaries. Incidents attributed to Russia include sabotage acts like attacks on Polish railway lines, attempts to disrupt Baltic Sea undersea cables, and an aggressive campaign by the GRU targeting supply chains to undermine NATO’s support for Ukraine.
The Kremlin’s objectives include raising costs for NATO’s support to Ukraine, disrupting supply chains temporarily, and sowing discord in Western nations. While Russia’s actions have not crossed the threshold for a NATO military response, using third-party proxies complicates attribution. However, these sabotage operations lack coordination across Europe and do not always align with the level of support countries provide to Ukraine.
Despite providing significant military and economic aid to Ukraine, the UK has experienced fewer physical attacks compared to countries like Germany, France, and Poland. Russian intelligence efforts in the UK, including recent incidents like the Yantar surveillance vessel, indicate ongoing surveillance activities. Disruptions to Russian intelligence networks in Europe in 2022 led to reliance on local proxies, impacting coordination and effectiveness of attacks. Russia is expected to adapt and improve its tactics, posing risks to non-military targets in Europe and the UK.